{"subject":"即時報導114.10.03","pubUnitName":"防災與水環境研究中心","posterDate":"114-10-03","updateDate":"114-10-03","detailContent":"<div class=\"ed_model12 clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_title01\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">114.10.02 空勘</span></div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\">      <span style=\"font-size:125%;\">  陽明交大防災中心李國維博士與行政院李顧問孟諺、林保署廖副署長一光、花蓮分署黃分署長群策及協力團隊，搭乘空勤總隊直升機，前往馬太鞍溪堰塞湖現勘</span></div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_title01\"> </div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_flex_box\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_pic\"><img alt=\"空勘團\" src=\"/userfiles/dpwech/images/20251003093553757.jpg\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"> </div>\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_pic\"><img alt=\"空拍1141002\" src=\"/userfiles/dpwech/images/20251003094650748.jpg\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"> </div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_flex_box\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_pic\"> \r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"> </div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div><div class=\"ed_model02 clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_title01\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">空勘後潰壩風險檢討</span></div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:125%;\">      •溢流潰決機率低<br>\r\n      •堰塞湖潰決後溢流口下切速率已減緩<br>\r\n      •10/2空勘顯示目前穩定溢流，沒有急遽下切引致再次潰決之跡象</span></div>\r\n</div>\r\n \r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_model08 clearfix\">\r\n<div class=\"ed_pic_full\"><img alt=\"空拍1002\" src=\"/userfiles/dpwech/images/20251003095255903.jpg\"></div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">邊坡整體破壞機率低、局部崩滑機率高</span></div>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">溢流口：溢流後的新流路坡度逐漸趨緩，陽明交大採羅吉斯迴歸評估天然壩溢流潰決機率降低為18%(9/23之前為 81%)，研判往後溢流沖刷下切之速率與增量會大幅降低，可望降低洪峰流量</span></li>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">溢流口下游兩側邊坡：新流路下切壩體造成兩側邊坡地形高陡，局部破壞機率高，未來可能再次阻塞流路，規模視降雨量、流路下切速度而定</span></li>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">管湧破壞機率：暫無發生條件</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">致災風險評估</span></div>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">溢流沖刷潰壩風險低，應評估溢流口下游沖刷可能造成兩側邊坡崩塌、阻塞河道風險</span></li>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">若溢流口阻塞，一天可蓄積約50~100萬噸之水量</span></li>\r\n\t<li class=\"ed_txt\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">大部分的堰塞湖在一天內就會潰決，100萬噸的水量約略造成下游水位上升10公分</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>","languageUrl":null,"docs":[],"images":[],"videos":[],"audios":[],"resources":[]}